The former president fell below a 40 percent chance of winning the election in the latest update to FiveThirtyEight's ...

According to 538's average, former President Donald ... and that decreases the weight our final forecast puts on polls today. The reason, in other words, that our forecast hasn't moved much ...

For 2024, 538 ... of the 2016 campaign in the two weeks after the Democratic National Convention that year — and the only time former President Donald Trump led in 538's "polls-only" forecast ...

All this means polls earlier in the election cycle are worse at approximating the final margin. This is where forecasting models really become useful. Above everything else, 538 makes forecasts to ...

Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote. Use the table ...

No one knows who will win, but these are the key dynamics that will shape the race as both campaigns prepare for next week’s ...